The odious Burmese junta has finally found its way into the consciousness of the world, but only because there are fears that it may open fire on the huge crowds of demonstrators currently thronging Rangoon - indeed there are reports that they have started to do so as I write.
A massacre would be a dreadful act, of course, but the only thing unusual about it in Burmese terms is that the world is watching. This is a regime that does not hesitate to dragoon its own civilian population into slave labour to build much-needed infrastructure, is carrying out a genocidal war against the Karen people (see the blogs of July 19th and 26th), spends half the national budget on arms and just 19p per head on health (despite a 10% under-5 mortality rate) and which has already opened fire on peaceful crowds once before, in 1988.
In the circumstances it is extraordinary that there has never been an armed insurrection - though the firepower 50% of the budget year after year can buy would make it less surprising for such an insurrection to fail. Yet it is not fear that has kept the Burmese people docile; they are Buddhists,and very devout ones, and violence is not their way. Don't ask me how the generals square Buddhism with what they do, for they too are Buddhists, or at least deeply superstitious. That's why the current demonstrations have been allowed to get as far as they have: they have been led by monks, deeply venerated by the people and even the generals are wary of taking them on. It is one of the few recorded instances of religion being a genuine force for good.
What will the international community do? What should it do? There can be few clearer cases for regime change than Burma, but its resources, though considerable (and largely wasted by the junta), are not sufficient to motivate the US 5th Cavalry or even a UN coalition. That's what should happen - what should have happened years ago - but it won't. The best we can hope for is a few sanctions, hopefully tightly targetted on the regime itself, not the people who are already suffering enough. Will that influence the regime? No. Perhaps some pressure from China? Possible, but don't hold your breath, either for the pressure or for a result from it.
By far the most likely outcome is the most depressing: some demonstrators, probably quite a number, will be shot; the crowds will eventually disperse and Rangoon will return to what passes for normality there. Aung San Suu Kyi will continue her lonely house arrest for another 17 years and the only difference will be a few more families mourning their dead.
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