The scientists have already given up on keeping global warming below two degrees (relative to where we are now).
That doesn't mean we are not going to go above two degrees - in fact we can only avoid that if the world collectively wakes up to the danger and immediately begins to take appropriate action. Do you think that's about to happen? If you do, you are the kind of optimist who packs the beachtowel and swimming trunks for a holiday in Antarctica.
The signs of things being already worse than we thought they were keep coming. The latest came from Sir Nicholas Stern - he of the report, published just a few months ago, which evaluated the dangers of climate change in financial terms (which by implication puts a monetary value on the life of each Bangladeshi who will be drowned by ever-bigger monsoons) and concluded that it would be more expensive to ignore climate change than to do something about it. He admitted recently that his report had been over-optimistic, and if he were producing it now he would portray the risks as bigger (read the Independent's report of his speech).
He was speaking in advance of a climate summit now happening in Bali. This is supposed to come up with the successor to the toothless but important Kyoto agreement, and got an early boost when the new Australian government made signing and ratifying Kyoto its first priority. That leaves the USA completely isolated. But there are fears that all Bali will do will be to set the framework for more talks. That may be the normal way to do international business, but on climate change the scientists are insistent that we only have a very few years left to avert catastrophic warming - if we are not already too late. We cannot afford a couple of years of the diplomats sitting around yacking before we get the usual fudged compromise. We can't even afford an immediate fudged compromise.
With the fate of the world at stake any action, however small, is worth doing to help things along the right track. There will be demonstrations in 86 countries on Saturday demanding that the Bali negotiators get their collective fingers out and do what they must know needs to be done. Be there if you can, to add your voice to that demand. The London demo gathers on Millbank at 12 noon, or if you are elsewhere you can find your nearest one here.
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